• Total new contract activity fell from 1,095 contracts last year to 825 this year, a decline of 270 contracts, or 24.7%.
• Every jurisdiction posted a double-digit decrease, ranging from -14.1% in Montgomery County to a striking -49.6% in Loudoun County.
• The weighted regional average days on market increased from 43.9 days to 46.3 days, a relatively modest increase of 2.5 days, or 5.7%. That's notable given the much larger decline in transaction volume.
• Year-to-date, the region has recorded 41,426 contracts compared with 42,363 last year, a decline of 937 contracts, or 2.2%. The cumulative deficit is growing, but remains nowhere near the magnitude of the recent weekly declines.

• At this point, there's no calendar quirk to blame and no reason to pretend this is simply normal weekly volatility. The market has slowed.
• This week's decline was broad: Northern Virginia was down 19.5%, Loudoun 49.6%, Prince William 22.3%, Montgomery 14.1%, Prince George's 33.2%, and Washington, DC 20.5%.
• And unlike some previous weeks, there weren't many price categories offering refuge. Loudoun's activity below $750,000 fell more than 60%. Prince George's was down substantially both below and above $750,000. Washington, DC declined at both ends of the market. Even Northern Virginia's higher-priced segment, which has frequently been a source of strength, fell 22.7%.
• There were exceptions. Northern Virginia contracts below $300,000 increased 30%, Montgomery posted gains below $500,000 and between $750,000 and $1 million, and Loudoun's $1.5 million-plus category increased. Prince William also had an unusual surge between $1 million and $1.5 million, although we're talking about only ten contracts versus one last year. But those are pockets of strength within an unmistakably weaker week.
• And then there are days on market. This remains one of the more interesting aspects of the current slowdown.
• Contract volume fell 24.7%, yet the weighted average days on market increased only 5.7%, from 43.9 to 46.3 days.
• And two jurisdictions actually improved. Loudoun fell from 44.8 to 40.9 days, while Prince William declined from 32.2 to 30.5 days. Northern Virginia increased modestly from 32.0 to 34.5 days, and Prince George's moved from 55.4 to 58.3.
• Montgomery experienced a more noticeable increase, from 36.3 to 45.0 days, while DC remains the region's slowest-moving market at 81.9 days versus 79.1 last year.
• It's an odd combination: far fewer contracts without a comparable deterioration in how quickly successful listings are selling.
• Part of the explanation may actually be the same thing that's hurting overall activity: mortgage rates. When rates rise rapidly, marginal buyers may step away altogether. But serious buyers who have found the right house may have an additional incentive to act rather than wait and risk financing costs moving even higher. We can't prove that from these data alone, but it would be consistent with what we're seeing: a smaller buyer pool that remains decisive when the right property comes along.
• And that's an important distinction for sellers. This isn't a market where nobody is buying. It's a market where fewer people are buying, and they're becoming increasingly selective about what deserves their attention.

• Northern Virginia: 334 → 269 (-19.5%)
• Loudoun County: 123 → 62 (-49.6%)
• Prince William County: 112 → 87 (-22.3%)
• Montgomery County: 206 → 177 (-14.1%)
• Prince George's County: 193 → 129 (-33.2%)
• Washington, DC: 127 → 101 (-20.5%)
• Combined contracts: 1,095 → 825 (-24.7%)
• Weighted average days on market: 43.9 → 46.3 days (+5.7%)
• Combined YTD contracts: 42,363 → 41,426 (-937 contracts, or -2.2%) 

The clouds we talked about last week haven't cleared. If anything, rising mortgage rates have made them a little darker. But the disconnect between contract volume and market time continues to matter. We're losing transactions much faster than we're losing velocity. That suggests the market hasn't run out of buyers—it has run out of some of its marginal buyers.

The ones still shopping seem to know what they want. And when they find it, they're still willing to act.